While we all watched Tebow running across the goal line at around 11:28PM last night, the same thought crossed through every Jets fan's mind "Its over". But before we all cause mayhem jumping off the Verezzano, pause for a second and see what common sense says.
The Jets are 5-5 and are currently 1.5 games out of a wild card spot. With a light schedule ahead with games vs BUF, WAS, KC, PHI, NYG and Miami, common sense says that a 5-1 record is ahead, making the overall record 10-6. IF that were to happen, Jets fans everywhere would probably jump for joy, BUT is that enough to get in?
First team to look at is the one right above you, the Buffalo Bills. If the Jets handle their business in their next game, they would hold the tie breaker. With their remaining games being against MIA, TEN, SD, MIA, DEN, and NE, even if they went 5-1 that would give them a 10-6 record and the Jets would with the head to head tie breaker would rank above them.
Next is the AFC North, with PIT, BAL and CIN so closely bunched together it may seem that the wild card chase is over. Looking at the Steelers first, they are currently 7-3 with games against KC, CIN, CLE, SF, STL, and CLE remaining. If you say they split between SF and CIN, that has them at 5-1 and finish 12-4 with the division title.
With the Steelers out of the WC hunt, next is the Ravens at 6-3. They finish with CIN, SF, CLE, IND, SD, CLE, CIN. In being generous to Cincy I'll say the Ravens split with them and split between SD and SF and go 5-2, making their record 11-5 and a WC spot.
Last in the AFC North is the Bengals who are 6-3 with remaining games against BAL, CLE, PIT, HOU, STL, ARI, BAL. Splitting with the Ravens, losing to the Steelers, winning against CLE, STL, ARI, it seems like it all may come down to their game vs the Texans. With a win they would be 11-5 and surely get the last WC spot. A loss to Houston and they are 10-6 and tied with the Jets.
Three way tie breaker rules apply. First the Jets have the head to head over the Bills so that leaves them against the Bengals. No head to head so it goes to record in conference games. The Jets would be 7-5 in conference and the Bengals would also be 7-5. Next is best record in common games (min. 4). The Bengals would be 3-2 in common games vs Broncos(0-1), Ravens(1-1), Jaguars (1-0) and Bills (1-0). The Jets vs those teams: Broncos (0-1), Ravens (0-1), Jaguars (1-0), Bills (2-0) which is also 3-2. Next tie breaker is strength of victory, since I cannot predict the scores to future games I can only say where it stands now. The Jets are +72 in 5 wins and the Bengals are +62 in 6 wins.
So there you have it. That is a "realistic" look at the Jets chances at making the postseason. Unfortunately the biggest leap I probably took was the Jets going 5-1 in their last 6 games. I know I did not include the Titans or any teams from the AFC West, once they are seen as more realistic I will include them in this discussion.
As of now, maybe every Jets fan should start Tebowing for them to make the playoffs. I guess we'll have the next 10 days to try to convince ourselves that this scenario is a realistic one.
